http://hdl.handle.net/2440/1080 2013-06-19T02:46:26Z http://hdl.handle.net/2440/78409 Title: A probabilistic quantification of the anthropogenic component of twentieth century global warming Author: Wigley, Tom Michael Lampe; Santer, Benjamin Abstract: This paper examines in detail the statement in the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report that “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”. We use a quantitative probabilistic analysis to evaluate this IPCC statement, and discuss the value of the statement in the policy context. For forcing by greenhouse gases (GHGs) only, we show that there is a greater than 90 % probability that the expected warming over 1950–2005 is larger than the total amount (not just “most”) of the observed warming. This is because, following current best estimates, negative aerosol forcing has substantially offset the GHG-induced warming. We also consider the expected warming from all anthropogenic forcings using the same probabilistic framework. This requires a re-assessment of the range of possible values for aerosol forcing. We provide evidence that the IPCC estimate for the upper bound of indirect aerosol forcing is almost certainly too high. Our results show that the expected warming due to all human influences since 1950 (including aerosol effects) is very similar to the observed warming. Including the effects of natural external forcing factors has a relatively small impact on our 1950–2005 results, but improves the correspondence between model and observations over 1900–2005. Over the longer period, however, externally forced changes are insufficient to explain the early twentieth century warming. We suggest that changes in the formation rate of North Atlantic Deep Water may have been a significant contributing factor. 2012-12-31T13:30:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2440/78395 Title: A megafauna's microfauna: gastrointestinal parasites of New Zealand's extinct Moa (Aves: Dinornithiformes) Author: Wood, Jamie Russell; Wilmshurst, Janet Mary; Rawlence, Nicolas James; Bonner, Karen I.; Worthy, Trevor Henry; Kinsella, John M.; Cooper, Alan Abstract: We perform the first multidisciplinary study of parasites from an extinct megafaunal clade using coprolites from the New Zealand moa (Aves: Dinornithiformes). Ancient DNA and microscopic analyses of 84 coprolites deposited by four moa species (South Island giant moa, Dinornis robustus; little bush moa, Anomalopteryx didiformis; heavy-footed moa, Pachyornis elephantopus; and upland moa, Megalapteryx didinus) reveal an array of gastrointestinal parasites including coccidians (Cryptosporidium and members of the suborder Eimeriorina), nematodes (Heterakoidea, Trichostrongylidae, Trichinellidae) and a trematode (Echinostomida). Parasite eggs were most prevalent and diverse in coprolites from lowland sites, where multiple sympatric moa species occurred and host density was therefore probably higher. Morphological and phylogenetic evidence supports a possible vicariant Gondwanan origin for some of the moa parasites. The discovery of apparently hostspecific parasite taxa suggests paleoparasitological studies of megafauna coprolites may provide useful case-studies of coextinction. 2012-12-31T13:30:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2440/78354 Title: Electromagnetic monitoring of fluid injection - lessons learned Author: Thiel, Stephan; Peacock, Jared Roy; MacFarlane, Jake Elias; Heinson, Graham Stewart Abstract: Magnetotelluric data acquired over the Paralana project has provided valuable insight into the resistivity distribution across geothermal sedimentary basins. The time-lapse MT measurements during an EGS fluid injection trace the preferential fluid connection in a NNE direction aligned with the regional stress field. The results add information to existing micro-seismic measurements by providing the preferential fluid-filled fracture connection at depth. New results using 2D forward magnetotelluric anisotropy codes are able to reproduce the direction of enhanced fluid flow by fitting measured against modelled phase tensor residuals. Future surveys will need to address limited resolution issues between EM measurements from the surface compared to standard micro-seismic monitoring techniques. 2011-12-31T13:30:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2440/78332 Title: Mixed responses of tropical Pacific fisheries and aquaculture to climate change Author: Bell, Johann D.; Ganachaud, Alexandre; Gehrke, Peter C.; Griffiths, Shane P.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Johnson, Johanna E.; Le Borgne, Robert; Lehodey, Patrick; Lough, Janice M.; Matear, Richard J.; Pickering, Timothy D.; Pratchett, M. S.; Sen Gupta, Alex; Senina, Inna; Waycott, Michelle 2012-12-31T13:30:00Z