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Type: Theses
Title: Essays on the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and adaptation
Author: Huang, Kaixing
Issue Date: 2016
School/Discipline: School of Economics
Abstract: The thesis studies the potential economic impacts of climate change on agricultural production and estimates to what extent adaptations can help to offset the potential damages of climate change on agricultural profits. The thesis consists of three journal-style articles. Chapter 1 is the introduction. Chapter 2 is the article “Why do econometric studies disagree on the effect of warming on agricultural output? A meta-analysis”. This article conducts a meta-analysis based on 130 primary econometric studies to better understand the conflict among the existing estimates of warming on agriculture. We find that differences in the latitude of the study sample, the temperature measure that was used, the econometric approach that was applied, and publication biases can explain why the primary studies disagree. We also find that this disagreement can be reduced if the primary studies use a yearly temperature measure and adopt the hedonic modelling approach, as in doing so, they will tend to produce estimates with a similar but previously supported view that warming will lead to positive effects on agriculture in the high latitudes and negative effects in the low latitudes. Chapter 3 is an article “How large is the potential economic benefit of agricultural adaptation to climate change? Evidence from the United States”. Based on the meta-analysis of Chapter 2, this article argues that studies of climate change impacts on agricultural profits using panel data typically do not take account of adaptations over time by farmers, and those that do tend to use the standard hedonic approach which is potentially biased. As an alternative, this chapter develops a panel framework that includes farmer adaptation. When tested with United States data, this study finds that the negative impact of expected climate change on farm profits by 2100 is only one-third as large once likely adaptation by farmers is taken into account. Chapter 4 is the third article “The potential benefits of agricultural adaptation to warming in China in the long run”. Based on a panel of household survey data from a large sample in rural China, the article adopts the panel approach proposed in Chapter 3 to estimate the potential benefits of adaptation and to identify the determinants of farmers’ adaptation capability. The empirical results suggest that, for various model settings and climate change scenarios, long-run adaptations should mitigate one-third to one-half of the damages of warming on crop profits by the end of this century. These findings support the basic argument of the hedonic approach that omitting long-run adaptations will dramatically overestimate the potential damage of climate change. The chapter also finds that household-level capital intensity and farmland size have significant effects on farmers’ adaptive capacities.
Advisor: Findlay, Christopher Charles
Anderson, Kym
Umberger, Wendy Jeanne
Wong, Jacob
Dissertation Note: Thesis (Ph.D.) (Research by Publication) -- University of Adelaide, School of Economics, 2016.
Keywords: climate change
impact
adaptation
Provenance: This electronic version is made publicly available by the University of Adelaide in accordance with its open access policy for student theses. Copyright in this thesis remains with the author. This thesis may incorporate third party material which has been used by the author pursuant to Fair Dealing exceptions. If you are the owner of any included third party copyright material you wish to be removed from this electronic version, please complete the take down form located at: http://www.adelaide.edu.au/legals
DOI: 10.4225/55/58ad23cbc70ea
Appears in Collections:Research Theses

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