Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
|Scopus||Web of Science®||Altmetric|
|Title:||Market timing with moving averages|
|Citation:||International Review of Finance, 2015; 15(3):387-425|
|Abstract:||I present evidence that a moving average (MA) trading strategy has a greater average return and skewness as well as a lower variance compared to buying and holding the underlying asset using monthly returns of value-weighted US decile portfolios sorted by market size, book-to-market, and momentum, and seven international markets as well as 18,000 individual US stocks. The MA strategy generates risk-adjusted returns of 3–7% per year after transaction costs. The performance of the MA strategy is driven largely by the volatility of stock returns and resembles the payoffs of an at-the-money protective put on the underlying buy-and-hold return. Conditional factor models with macroeconomic variables, especially the default premium, can explain some of the abnormal returns. Standard market timing tests reveal ample evidence regarding the timing ability of the MA strategy.|
|Keywords:||G11; G12; G14|
|Rights:||© 2015 International Review of Finance Ltd. 2015|
|Appears in Collections:||Economics publications|
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.