Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2440/108375
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Type: Book chapter
Title: Probability
Author: Eagle, A.
Citation: The Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Science, 2016 / Humphreys, P. (ed./s), Ch.20, pp.417-439
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Publisher Place: United States of America
Issue Date: 2016
ISBN: 0199368813
9780199368815
Statement of
Responsibility: 
Antony Eagle
Abstract: Rather than entailing that a particular outcome will occur, many scientific theories only entail that an outcome will occur with a certain probability. Because scientific evidence inevitably falls short of conclusive proof, when choosing between different theories it is standard to make reference to how probable the various options are in light of the evidence. A full understanding of probability in science needs to address both the role of probabilities in theories, or chances, as well as the role of probabilistic judgment in theory choice. In this chapter, the author introduces and distinguishes the two sorts of probability from one another and attempt to offer a satisfactory characterization of how the different uses for probability in science are to be understood. A closing section turns to the question of how views about the chance of some outcome should guide our confidence in that outcome.
Keywords: Probability; chance; frequency; determinism; philosophy of science; credence; confirmation; Bayesianism; the Principal Principle
Rights: © Oxford University Press 2016
RMID: 0030063732
DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199368815.013.24
Published version: https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-oxford-handbook-of-philosophy-of-science-9780199368815
Appears in Collections:Philosophy publications

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