The Modi lahar (wave) in the 2014 Indian national election: a critical realignment?

Abstract

In India ’ s 2014 general election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured an outright majority of seats, the fi rst time any party has done so since 1984. This has led to claims that this is a ‘ critical ’ or ‘ realigning ’ election. Yet, most Indian elections are initially described as ‘ critical ’ elections, which suggests that this concept needs to be further re fi ned to be analytically useful in India ’ s electorally volatile and regionalised political context. This commentary conceptualises critical elections in India as those that enable the winning party to build lasting regional social coalitions. Such coalitions need to be consolidated in subsequent elections for a realignment to take place. A mastery of regional politics was crucial to the BJP ’ s 2014 win, which does mark this as a potentially realigning election. Yet, questions remain about its ability to consolidate the coalitions that delivered this result.