Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2440/114692
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Type: Journal article
Title: On the likelihood of "encapsulating all uncertainty"
Author: Martire, K.
Edmond, G.
Navarro, D.
Newell, B.
Citation: Science and Justice, 2017; 57(1):76-79
Publisher: Elsevier Ireland
Issue Date: 2017
ISSN: 1355-0306
1876-4452
Statement of
Responsibility: 
Kristy A. Martire, Gary Edmond, Daniel J. Navarro, Ben R. Newell
Abstract: The assignment of personal probabilities to form a forensic practitioner's likelihood ratio is a mental operation subject to all the frailties of human memory, perception and judgment. While we agree that beliefs expressed as coherent probabilities are neither 'right' nor 'wrong' we argue that debate over this fact obscures both the requirement for and consideration of the 'helpfulness' of practitioner's opinions. We also question the extent to which a likelihood ratio based on personal probabilities can realistically be expected to 'encapsulate all uncertainty'. Courts cannot rigorously assess a forensic practitioner's bare assertions of belief regarding evidential strength. At a minimum, information regarding the uncertainty both within and between the opinions of practitioners is required.
Keywords: Humans; Likelihood Functions; Uncertainty; Forensic Sciences
Description: This paper is part of the Virtual Special Issue entitled: Measuring and Reporting the Precision of Forensic Likelihood Ratios, [http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/ 13550306/vsi]
Rights: © 2016 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
RMID: 0030098328
DOI: 10.1016/j.scijus.2016.10.004
Grant ID: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DE140100183
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP160101186
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/LP160100008
Appears in Collections:Psychology publications

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