The general practice nurse workforce: estimating the future supply

Abstract

Background: General practice nurses (GPNs) form an important component of the general practice workforce in Australia. Despite this, there is limited research on estimating their future supply. This study aims to estimate the future GPN supply and the impact of a range of policy and non-policy changes on workforce balances. Methods: A simulation model of the GPN workforce over the period 2012–25 was developed, with scenario analysis used to assess the effects of policy and non‑policy scenarios. Results: The baseline scenario estimated a shortage of 814 full-time GPNs by 2025. The non-policy single scenarios all projected shortages by 2025. The worst-case scenario was reduced working hours and best-case scenario was the retention scenario. Discussion: Over the 13-year period considered, the Australian practice nurse workforce is predicted to move into a position of shortage. Retention and recruitment policies are shown to be effective in addressing these shortages.