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Type: Conference paper
Title: Multiple anchors and the MOLE: Bbenefits for elicitation
Author: Clausen, M.
Welsh, M.B.
Citation: Proceedings: COGSCI 2018: changing / minds, 2018 / Rogers, T.T., Rau, M., Zhu, X., Kalish, C.W. (ed./s), vol.40, pp.1506-1511
Publisher: Cognitive Science Society
Publisher Place: Austin, USA
Issue Date: 2018
ISBN: 9780991196784
Conference Name: Annual Cognitive Science Society Meeting (COGSCI) (25 Jul 2018 - 28 Jul 2018 : Madison, USA)
Editor: Rogers, T.T.
Rau, M.
Zhu, X.
Kalish, C.W.
Statement of
Marianne H. Clausen, Matthew B. Welsh
Abstract: Anchoring is a well-known, robust effect causing estimates to be biased towards previously seen values – regardless of their relevance. Reducing anchoring bias is important for optimizing estimation. Herein, we tested the MOLE (More-Or-Less Elicitation) tool’s ability to limit the impact of anchors on estimates. In a direct elicitation task, 62 participants’ best estimates correlated with anchor values at 0.27 whereas, when using the MOLE, this relationship disappeared (r = .02). Results also showed, however, that expertise reduces the impact of anchoring (r = -0.46). We conclude that use of the MOLE assists in avoiding anchoring and that this will be most helpful in areas of high uncertainty.
Rights: Copyright status unknown
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Psychology publications

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