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|Title:||Minimum founding populations for the first peopling of Sahul|
|Citation:||Nature Ecology and Evolution, 2019; 3(7):1057-1063|
|Corey J.A. Bradshaw, Sean Ulm, Alan N. Williams, Michael I. Bird, Richard G. Roberts, Zenobia Jacobs, Fiona Laviano, Laura S. Weyrich, Tobias Friedrich, Kasih Norman, and Frédérik Saltré|
|Abstract:||The timing, context and nature of the first people to enter Sahul is still poorly understood owing to a fragmented archaeological record. However, quantifying the plausible demographic context of this founding population is essential to determine how and why the initial peopling of Sahul occurred. We developed a stochastic, age-structured model using demographic rates from hunter-gatherer societies, and relative carrying capacity hindcasted with LOVECLIM's net primary productivity for northern Sahul. We projected these populations to determine the resilience and minimum sizes required to avoid extinction. A census founding population of between 1,300 and 1,550 individuals was necessary to maintain a quasi-extinction threshold of ≲0.1. This minimum founding population could have arrived at a single point in time, or through multiple voyages of ≥130 people over ~700-900 years. This result shows that substantial population amalgamation in Sunda and Wallacea in Marine Isotope Stages 3-4 provided the conditions for the successful, large-scale and probably planned peopling of Sahul.|
|Rights:||© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2019|
|Appears in Collections:||Earth and Environmental Sciences publications|
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