Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2440/120906
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Type: Journal article
Title: Minimum founding populations for the first peopling of Sahul
Author: Bradshaw, C.
Ulm, S.
Williams, A.
Bird, M.
Roberts, R.
Jacobs, Z.
Laviano, F.
Weyrich, L.
Friedrich, T.
Norman, K.
Saltré, F.
Citation: Nature Ecology and Evolution, 2019; 3(7):1057-1063
Publisher: Springer Nature
Issue Date: 2019
ISSN: 2397-334X
2397-334X
Statement of
Responsibility: 
Corey J.A. Bradshaw, Sean Ulm, Alan N. Williams, Michael I. Bird, Richard G. Roberts, Zenobia Jacobs, Fiona Laviano, Laura S. Weyrich, Tobias Friedrich, Kasih Norman, and Frédérik Saltré
Abstract: The timing, context and nature of the first people to enter Sahul is still poorly understood owing to a fragmented archaeological record. However, quantifying the plausible demographic context of this founding population is essential to determine how and why the initial peopling of Sahul occurred. We developed a stochastic, age-structured model using demographic rates from hunter-gatherer societies, and relative carrying capacity hindcasted with LOVECLIM's net primary productivity for northern Sahul. We projected these populations to determine the resilience and minimum sizes required to avoid extinction. A census founding population of between 1,300 and 1,550 individuals was necessary to maintain a quasi-extinction threshold of ≲0.1. This minimum founding population could have arrived at a single point in time, or through multiple voyages of ≥130 people over ~700-900 years. This result shows that substantial population amalgamation in Sunda and Wallacea in Marine Isotope Stages 3-4 provided the conditions for the successful, large-scale and probably planned peopling of Sahul.
Rights: © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2019
RMID: 0030119388
DOI: 10.1038/s41559-019-0902-6
Grant ID: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/CE170100015
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT120100656
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FL140100044
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FL130100116
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT150100138
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT180100407
Appears in Collections:Earth and Environmental Sciences publications

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