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Type: Journal article
Title: Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control
Author: Cope, R.C.
Ross, J.V.
Citation: Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2020; 486:1-7
Publisher: Elsevier
Issue Date: 2020
ISSN: 0022-5193
Statement of
Robert C.Cope, Joshua V.Ross
Abstract: In an outbreak of an emerging disease the epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen may be largely unknown. A key determinant of ability to control the outbreak is the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset. We provide a method for identifying this relationship with high accuracy based on data from simulated household-stratified symptom-onset data. Further, this can be achieved with observations taken on only a few specific days, chosen optimally, within each household. The information provided by this method may inform decision making processes for outbreak response. An accurate and computationally-efficient heuristic for determining the optimal surveillance scheme is introduced. This heuristic provides a novel approach to optimal design for Bayesian model discrimination.
Keywords: Bayesian model discrimination
optimal experimental design
random forests
Rights: © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110079
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