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|Title:||Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control|
|Citation:||Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2020; 486:1-7|
|Robert C.Cope, Joshua V.Ross|
|Abstract:||In an outbreak of an emerging disease the epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen may be largely unknown. A key determinant of ability to control the outbreak is the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset. We provide a method for identifying this relationship with high accuracy based on data from simulated household-stratified symptom-onset data. Further, this can be achieved with observations taken on only a few specific days, chosen optimally, within each household. The information provided by this method may inform decision making processes for outbreak response. An accurate and computationally-efficient heuristic for determining the optimal surveillance scheme is introduced. This heuristic provides a novel approach to optimal design for Bayesian model discrimination.|
|Keywords:||Bayesian model discrimination|
optimal experimental design
|Rights:||© 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.|
|Appears in Collections:||Aurora harvest 4|
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