Predicting social distancing compliance using the Theory of Planned Behaviour

Abstract

Pandemics are associated with high rates of morbidity, mortality, and economic disruption. Indeed, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has been the most fatal of three twenty-first century coronavirus outbreaks. In the absence of a vaccine or medicinal treatment, non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing, have been recommended to reduce person-to-person transmission. It is anticipated, however, that 80% compliance with regulations would be required to control the outbreak in Australia, with 90% compliance rate likely to control transmission sooner. Although previous research has investigated factors associated with intentions to comply with government enforced pandemic restrictions (such as social distancing), limited research has examined actual behaviour during a pandemic. Using an online questionnaire which included a series of vignettes, this study aimed to identify factors related to compliance with social distancing restrictions. In line with the predictions of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (Ajzen, 1991), our results show that intention to adhere with restrictions and perceived behavioural control significantly predicted participants’ self-reported behaviour. Further, participants’ attitudes towards social distancing regulations significantly predicted their intentions to adhere with social distancing, although subjective norm and perceived behavioural control were not predictors of intention. Greater understanding of the restrictions also significantly predicted intentions to adhere with the restrictions. Our results suggest that greater understanding of the social distancing restrictions, more favourable attitudes towards the restrictions, and perceived ability to follow the restrictions may encourage greater compliance with social distancing; a behaviour that could reduce morbidity and mortality rates during the current and future pandemics.