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|Title:||Projecting the incidence of type 2 diabetes-related end-stage kidney disease until 2040: a comparison between the effects of diabetes prevention and the effects of diabetes treatment|
|Citation:||Diabetes Care, 2021; 44(7):1515-1523|
|Publisher:||American Diabetes Association|
|Jedidiah I. Morton, Stephen P. McDonald, Agus Salim, Danny Liew, Jonathan E. Shaw and Dianna J. Magliano|
|Abstract:||Objective This study sought to examine the effects of two diabetes prevention approaches and of widespread use of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) among people with diabetes on the future incidence of diabetes-related end-stage kidney disease (ESKD-D).<h4>Research design and methods</h4>We developed a life table model to project the incidence of ESKD-D for type 2 diabetes in Australia until 2040. We projected incident ESKD-D under three separate scenarios: a large-scale lifestyle modification program for diabetes prevention; a population-wide sugar-sweetened beverage tax for diabetes prevention; and widespread use of SGLT2is among people with diabetes.<h4>Results</h4>Assuming current trends, we projected that the annual incidence of ESKD-D will increase from 3.7 per 100,000 of the general population in 2014 to 5.7 by 2040. Incorporating the diabetes prevention approaches, we projected that the annual incidence of ESKD-D will be between 5.2 and 5.5 per 100,000 by 2040. When we modeled scenarios in which 50% and 70% of eligible people with diabetes were prescribed an SGLT2i, the annual incidence of ESKD-D by 2040 was projected to be 4.7 and 4.3 per 100,000, respectively. SGLT2is were projected to reduce the total number of incident ESKD-D cases between 2020 and 2040 by 12-21% compared with current trends, whereas diabetes prevention reduced cases by 1-3%.<h4>Conclusions</h4>It is likely that the number of people developing ESKD-D will increase over the coming decades, although widespread SGLT2i use will be effective at limiting this increase. Diabetes prevention will be crucial to prevent an ever-increasing burden of diabetes complications.|
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2
Kidney Failure, Chronic
|Rights:||© 2021 by the American Diabetes Association|
|Appears in Collections:||Aurora harvest 4|
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