Feeding and feling China in the 21st century

Abstract

This paper addresses the questions: to what extent will China become a significant net importer of food and fuel in the foreseeable future, and what will be the impact of that import demand growth on international markets? It first summarizes what standard trade and development economics and the experiences of other Asian economies suggest we should expect of China, and then examines China's experience to date before turning to some forecasts for the next decade or so. Our review suggests that before long China will become a significant net importer of both food and fuels (especially petroleum). Contrary to Chinese fears, however, becoming more interdependent with the rest of the world need not be threatening and it may even offer more supply security for China in the long run.