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https://hdl.handle.net/2440/43194
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DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Lee, M. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Gregory, T. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Welsh, M. | - |
dc.contributor.editor | Forbus, K. | - |
dc.contributor.editor | Gentner, D. | - |
dc.contributor.editor | Regier, T. | - |
dc.date.issued | 2005 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Proceedings of the Twenty-Sixth Conference of the Cognitive Science Society / K. Forbus, D. Gentner, T. Reiger (eds.), pp. 819-824 | - |
dc.identifier.isbn | 0805854649 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2440/43194 | - |
dc.description.abstract | The secretary problem is a recreational mathematics problem, suited to laboratory experimentation, that nevertheless is representative of a class of real world sequential decision-making tasks. In the ‘full information’ version, an observer is presented with a sequence of values from a known distribution, and is required to choose the maximum value. The difficulties are that a value can only be chosen at the time it is presented, that the last value in the sequence is a forced choice if none is chosen earlier, and that any value that is not the maximum is scored as completely wrong. We report a study of human performance on full information secretary problems with 10, 20 and 50 values in the sequence, and considers three different heuristics as models of human decision-making. It is found that some people achieve near-optimal levels of accuracy, but that there are individual differences in human performance. A quantitative evaluation of the three heuristics, using the Minimum Description Length criterion, shows inter-individual differences, but intra-individual consistency, in the use of the heuristics. In particular, people seem to use the heuristics that involve choosing a value when it exceeds an internal threshold, but differ in how they set thresholds. On the basis of these findings, a more general threshold-based family of heuristic models is developed. | - |
dc.description.statementofresponsibility | Michael D. Lee, Tess A. O'Connor and Matthew B. Welsh | - |
dc.language.iso | en | - |
dc.publisher | Lawrence Erlbaum | - |
dc.rights | © the authors | - |
dc.title | Decision-Making on the Full Information Secretary Problem | - |
dc.type | Conference paper | - |
dc.contributor.conference | Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (26th : 2004 : Chicago, Ill.) | - |
dc.publisher.place | New Jersey, USA | - |
pubs.publication-status | Published | - |
dc.identifier.orcid | Gregory, T. [0000-0003-4799-6258] | - |
dc.identifier.orcid | Welsh, M. [0000-0002-3605-716X] | - |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest 6 Environment Institute publications Psychology publications |
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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hdl_43194.pdf | Published version | 121.17 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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