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Type: Conference paper
Title: An oil and gas decision-making taxonomy
Author: Mackie, S.
Welsh, M.
Lee, M.
Citation: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition: Thriving on volatility / www1-www9
Publisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers
Issue Date: 2006
Conference Name: SPE Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition (2006 : Adelaide, Australia)
Abstract: Business under-performance in the upstream oil and gas industry, and the failure of many decisions to return expected results, has led to a growing interest over the past few years in understanding the impacts of current decision-making tools and processes and their relationship with decision outcomes. Improving oil and gas decision-making is thus, increasingly, seen as reliant on an understanding of what types of decisions are involved, how they should be made in order to be optimal, and how they actually are made in the “real world”. There has been significant work carried out within the discipline of cognitive psychology, observing how people actually make decisions. However, little is known as to whether these general observations apply to decision-making in the upstream oil and gas industry. Nor has there been work on how the results might be used to improve decision-making in the industry. This paper documents the development of a theoretical Oil and Gas Decision Making Taxonomy (OGDMT) that seeks to lay a “level playing field” decision space within which to judge the processes and tools of optimal decision-making as the first step in this research. The OGDMT builds on established ideas in the human decision-making literature, but is itself novel, and involves four different dimensions: level of investigation; task constraint; value function; and the information structure of the environment. It is concluded that decision scenarios at different places in the taxonomy will likely involve different decision-making tools, data and processes for the achievement of optimal decision-making. The results of this work can be applied, for example, to the question of whether decisions about reserves should be made using deterministic or probabilistic tools, data and processes.
Description: SPE paper number 100699-MS
Rights: © 2006 Society of Petroleum Engineers
DOI: 10.2118/100699-MS
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Australian School of Petroleum publications
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