Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2440/59556
Type: Conference paper
Title: Repeated judgements in elicitation tasks: Efficacy of the MOLE method
Author: Welsh, M.
Lee, M.
Begg, S.
Citation: Proceedings of the 31st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (COGSCI 2009): 1529-1534
Publisher: Cognitive Science Society
Publisher Place: Netherlands
Issue Date: 2009
Conference Name: Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (31st : 2009 : Amsterdam, The Netherlands)
Statement of
Responsibility: 
Matthew B. Welsh, Michael D. Lee and Steve H. Begg
Abstract: Recent work has demonstrated the benefits of repeated judgments in improving the accuracy of estimates – both independent and repeated, individual judgments. The More- Or-Less-Elicitation (MOLE) method has previously been shown to improve accuracy and precision of elicitation over single judgment elicitations (Welsh, Lee, & Begg, 2008). In this paper, we show the MOLE method delivers superior gains, in terms of both accuracy and calibration, over repeated-judgment elicitation, while taking significantly less time and not requiring filler tasks to distract participants from previous estimates. We argue that the structure of the MOLE method acts in the same manner as repeated judgment, resulting in multiple searches across the relevant space, without the associated problems of standard repeated judgments methods, such as additional time and participant recall and repetition of prior estimates.
Keywords: Elicitation; uncertainty; overconfidence; repeated judgments
Rights: © the authors
RMID: 0020095574
Appears in Collections:Australian School of Petroleum publications
Environment Institute publications

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
hdl_59556.pdfPublished version121.94 kBAdobe PDFView/Open


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.