Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Scopus Web of Science® Altmetric
Type: Journal article
Title: A score for the prediction of cardiovascular events in the hypertensive aged
Author: Nelson, M.
Ramsay, E.
Ryan, P.
Willson, K.
Tonkin, A.
Wing, L.
Simons, L.
Reid, C.
Citation: American Journal of Hypertension, 2012; 25(2):190-194
Publisher: Elsevier Science Inc
Issue Date: 2012
ISSN: 0895-7061
Statement of
Mark R. Nelson, Emmae Ramsay, Philip Ryan, Kristyn Willson, Andrew M. Tonkin, Lindon Wing, Leon Simons and Christopher M. Reid on Behalf of the Second Australian National Blood Pressure Management Committee
Abstract: Background: With few exceptions, tools used to estimate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in those without prior events are based mainly on data from middle-aged subjects. Given the ever increasing number of older people, many with hypertension, a risk score relevant to this group is warranted. Our aim was to develop a cardiovascular risk equation suitable for risk prediction in elderly, hypertensive populations. Methods: We utilized cardiovascular end point data from 4.1 years median follow-up in 5,426 hypertensive subjects without previous CVD from the Second Australian National Blood Pressure Study (ANBP2). Our risk model, based on Cox regression, was developed using 75% of subjects without evident CVD (n = 4,072), randomly selected and stratified by age and gender, and internally validated using the remaining 25%. The model was also externally validated against the Dubbo Study dataset. Results: The final model included sex, age, physical activity in the 2 weeks prior to entry into study, family history, use of anticoagulants, centrally acting antihypertensive agents or diabetes medication, and an interaction term for sex and diabetes medication. The C-statistic was 0.65 (0.62–0.67) for our predictive model on the model development dataset and 0.62 (0.57–0.67) on the internal validation dataset. The Dubbo Data C-statistic for CVD was 0.68 (95% CI 0.65–0.71). Conclusions: All models performed similarly. Because of greater ease of implementation, we recommend that existing algorithms be extended into older age groups.
Keywords: aged
blood pressure
cardiovascular diseases
risk assessment
Rights: © 2012 American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd.
DOI: 10.1038/ajh.2011.192
Published version:
Appears in Collections:Aurora harvest 5
Public Health publications

Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.

Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.