Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2440/69972
Type: Conference paper
Title: Number preference, precision and implicity confidence
Author: Welsh, M.
Navarro, D.
Begg, S.
Citation: Proceedings of the 33rd Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (CogSci 2011), held in Boston, USA 20-32 July 2011 / L. Carlson, C. Hoelscher and T. Shipley (eds.): pp.1521-1526
Publisher: Cognitive Science Society
Publisher Place: online
Issue Date: 2011
ISBN: 9780976831877
Conference Name: Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (33rd : 2011 : Boston, USA)
Statement of
Responsibility: 
Matthew B. Welsh, Daniel J. Navarro and Steve H. Begg
Abstract: In elicitation tasks, people are asked to make estimates under conditions of uncertainty but elicitors then interpret these estimates as if the estimator were certain of them. An analysis of people’s patterns of responding during the elicitation of uncertainty, indicates that there are markers of confidence incorporated into these estimates that can be used to predict the person’s true level of confidence. One such marker is the precision (number of significant figures) of the estimate. Analyses of elicited data show the expected positive relationships between accuracy, precision and explicit confidence and, further, that precision offers information beyond that of explicit confidence ratings. We then demonstrate the importance of incorporating this information on an overconfidence task, showing that it can account for a 9% difference in calibration.
Keywords: Number preference; confidence; precision; elicitation; judgment and decision making
Rights: © the authors
RMID: 0020116604
Appears in Collections:Australian School of Petroleum publications

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