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Type: Journal article
Title: Predicting ecosystem shifts requires new approaches that integrate the effects of climate change across entire systems
Author: Russell, B.
Harley, C.
Wernberg, T.
Mieszkowska, N.
Widdicombe, S.
Hall-Spencer, J.
Connell, S.
Citation: Biology Letters, 2012; 8(2):164-166
Publisher: The Royal Society
Issue Date: 2012
ISSN: 1744-9561
Statement of
Bayden D. Russell, Christopher D. G. Harley, Thomas Wernberg, Nova Mieszkowska, Stephen Widdicombe, Jason M. Hall-Spencer and Sean D. Connell
Abstract: Most studies that forecast the ecological consequences of climate change target a single species and a single life stage. Depending on climatic impacts on other life stages and on interacting species, however, the results from simple experiments may not translate into accurate predictions of future ecological change. Research needs to move beyond simple experimental studies and environmental envelope projections for single species towards identifying where ecosystem change is likely to occur and the drivers for this change. For this to happen, we advocate research directions that (i) identify the critical species within the target ecosystem, and the life stage(s) most susceptible to changing conditions and (ii) the key interactions between these species and components of their broader ecosystem. A combined approach using macroecology, experimentally derived data and modelling that incorporates energy budgets in life cycle models may identify critical abiotic conditions that disproportionately alter important ecological processes under forecasted climates.
Keywords: climate change
ocean acidification
global warming
species interactions
ecosystem shift
productivity and consumption
Rights: Copyright the Authors
DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2011.0779
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