Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2440/79332
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Type: Journal article
Title: Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation
Author: Westra, S.
Alexander, L.
Zwiers, F.
Citation: Journal of Climate, 2013; 26(11):3904-3918
Publisher: Amer Meteorological Soc
Issue Date: 2013
ISSN: 0894-8755
1520-0442
Statement of
Responsibility: 
Seth Westra, Lisa V. Alexander and Francis W. Zwiers
Abstract: This study investigates the presence of trends in annual maximum daily precipitation time series obtained from a global dataset of 8326 high-quality land-based observing stations with more than 30 years of record over the period from 1900 to 2009. Two complementary statistical techniques were adopted to evaluate the possible nonstationary behavior of these precipitation data. The first was a Mann–Kendall nonparametric trend test, and it was used to evaluate the existence of monotonic trends. The second was a nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis, and it was used to determine the strength of association between the precipitation extremes and globally averaged near-surface temperature. The outcomes are that statistically significant increasing trends can be detected at the global scale, with close to two-thirds of stations showing increases. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant association with globally averaged near-surface temperature, with the median intensity of extreme precipitation changing in proportion with changes in global mean temperature at a rate of between 5.9% and 7.7% K−1, depending on the method of analysis. This ratio was robust irrespective of record length or time period considered and was not strongly biased by the uneven global coverage of precipitation data. Finally, there is a distinct meridional variation, with the greatest sensitivity occurring in the tropics and higher latitudes and the minima around 13°S and 11°N. The greatest uncertainty was near the equator because of the limited number of sufficiently long precipitation records, and there remains an urgent need to improve data collection in this region to better constrain future changes in tropical precipitation.
Keywords: Rainfall; climate change; climate sensitivity; trends
Rights: © 2013 American Meteorological Society
RMID: 0020130265
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1
Grant ID: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP120100338
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/LP100200690
Appears in Collections:Civil and Environmental Engineering publications
Environment Institute publications

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