Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2440/79466
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Type: Journal article
Title: Relative magnitudes of sources of uncertainty in assessing climate change impacts on water supply security for the southern Adelaide water supply system
Author: Paton, F.
Maier, H.
Dandy, G.
Citation: Water Resources Research, 2013; 49(3):1643-1667
Publisher: Amer Geophysical Union
Issue Date: 2013
ISSN: 0043-1397
1944-7973
Statement of
Responsibility: 
F.L. Paton, H.R. Maier and G.C. Dandy
Abstract: The sources of uncertainty in projecting the impacts of climate change on runoff are increasingly well recognized; however, translating these uncertainties to urban water security has received less attention in the literature. Furthermore, runoff cannot be used as a surrogate for water supply security when studying the impacts of climate change due to the nonlinear transformations in modeling water supply and the effects of additional uncertainties, such as demand. Consequently, this study presents a scenario-based sensitivity analysis to qualitatively rank the relative contributions of major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impacts of climate change on water supply security through time. This can then be used by water authorities to guide water planning and management decisions. The southern system of Adelaide, South Australia, is used to illustrate the methodology for which water supply system reliability is examined across six greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, seven general circulation models, six demand projections, and 1000 stochastic rainfall time series. Results indicate the order of the relative contributions of uncertainty changes through time; however, demand is always the greatest source of uncertainty and GHG emissions scenarios the least. In general, reliability decreases over the planning horizon, illustrating the need for additional water sources or demand mitigation, while increasing uncertainty with time suggests flexible management is required to ensure future supply security with minimum regret.
Rights: © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
RMID: 0020128216
DOI: 10.1002/wrcr.20153
Appears in Collections:Civil and Environmental Engineering publications
Environment Institute publications

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