Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://hdl.handle.net/2440/80732
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Type: | Journal article |
Title: | Pitfalls and improvements in the joint inference of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in hydrological model calibration |
Author: | Evin, G. Kavetski, D. Thyer, M. Kuczera, G. |
Citation: | Water Resources Research, 2013; 49(7):4518-4524 |
Publisher: | Amer Geophysical Union |
Issue Date: | 2013 |
ISSN: | 0043-1397 1944-7973 |
Statement of Responsibility: | Guillaume Evin, Dmitri Kavetski, Mark Thyer, and George Kuczera |
Abstract: | <jats:p>Residual errors of hydrological models are usually both heteroscedastic and autocorrelated. However, only a few studies have attempted to explicitly include these two statistical properties into the residual error model and jointly infer them with the hydrological model parameters. This technical note shows that applying autoregressive error models to raw heteroscedastic residuals, as done in some recent studies, can lead to unstable error models with poor predictive performance. This instability can be avoided by applying the autoregressive process to standardized residuals. The theoretical analysis is supported by empirical findings in three hydrologically distinct catchments. The case studies also highlight strong interactions between the parameters of autoregressive residual error models and the water balance parameters of the hydrological model.</jats:p> |
Keywords: | residual errors heteroscedasticity autocorrelation calibration hydrological models |
Rights: | ©2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
DOI: | 10.1002/wrcr.20284 |
Published version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20284 |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest 4 Civil and Environmental Engineering publications |
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hdl_80732.pdf | Published version | 553.5 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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