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Type: Journal article
Title: Modeling global wine markets to 2018: exchange rates, taste changes, and China's import growth
Author: Anderson, K.
Wittwer, G.
Citation: Journal of Wine Economics, 2013; 8(2):131-158
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Issue Date: 2013
ISSN: 1931-4361
Statement of
Kym Anderson and Glyn Wittwer
Abstract: In this paper, we use a revised, expanded, and updated version of a global model first developed by Wittwer et al. (2003) to project the wine markets of its 44 countries plus seven residual country groups to 2018. Because real exchange rate (RER) changes have played a key role in the fortunes of wine market participants in some countries in recent years, we use the model to analyze their impact, first retrospectively during 2007–11 and then prospectively during the period to 2018 under two alternative sets of RERs: no change, and a halfway return to 2009 rates. In both scenarios, we assume a return to the gradual trend toward premium wines and away from nonpremium wines. The other major development expected to affect the world's wine trade is growth in China's import demand. Alternative simulations provide a range of possibilities, but even the low-growth scenario suggests that China's place in global wine markets is likely to become increasingly prominent. (JEL Classifications: C53, F11, F17, Q13).
Keywords: Changes in tastes; global grape and wine modeling; real exchange rate changes
Rights: © American Association of Wine Economists, 2013
DOI: 10.1017/jwe.2013.31
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Appears in Collections:Aurora harvest 7
Economics publications

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