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Type: Conference paper
Title: Information versus reward in a changing world
Author: Navarro, D.J.
Newell, B.
Citation: Program of the 36th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, 2014, pp.1054-1059
Publisher: Cognitive Science Society
Issue Date: 2014
ISBN: 9780991196708
Conference Name: 36th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (CogSci 2014) (23 Jul 2014 - 26 Jul 2014 : Quebec City, Canada)
Statement of
Daniel J. Navarro, Ben R. Newell
Abstract: How do people solve the explore-exploit trade-off in a changing environment? In this paper we present experimental evidence in an "observe or bet" task, comparing human behavior in a changing environment to their behavior in an unchanging one. We present a Bayesian analysis of the observe or bet task and show that human judgments are consistent with that analysis. However, we find that people's behavior is most consistent with a Bayesian model that assumes a rate of change that is higher than the true rate in the task. We argue that this tendency is the result of asymmetric consequences: assuming that the world changes more often than it really does is not very costly, whereas assuming a too-low rate of change can carry much more severe consequences.
Keywords: decision making; explore-exploit dilemmas; learning; change detection
Rights: © The Authors
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Psychology publications

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