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Type: Journal article
Title: Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the Philippines
Author: Paynter, S.
Yakob, L.
Simões, E.
Lucero, M.
Tallo, V.
Nohynek, H.
Ware, R.
Weinstein, P.
Williams, G.
Sly, P.
Citation: PLoS One, 2014; 9(2):e90094-1-e90094-11
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Issue Date: 2014
ISSN: 1932-6203
Statement of
Stuart Paynter, Laith Yakob, Eric A. F. Simões, Marilla G. Lucero, Veronica Tallo, Hanna Nohynek, Robert S. Ware, Philip Weinstein, Gail Williams, Peter D. Sly
Abstract: We used a mathematical transmission model to estimate when ecological drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmissibility would need to act in order to produce the observed seasonality of RSV in the Philippines. We estimated that a seasonal peak in transmissibility would need to occur approximately 51 days prior to the observed peak in RSV cases (range 49 to 67 days). We then compared this estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility to the seasonal patterns of possible ecological drivers of transmissibility: rainfall, humidity and temperature patterns, nutritional status, and school holidays. The timing of the seasonal patterns of nutritional status and rainfall were both consistent with the estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility and these are both plausible drivers of the seasonality of RSV in this setting.
Keywords: Humans; Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections; Incidence; Seroepidemiologic Studies; Seasons; Algorithms; Models, Theoretical; Child; Child, Preschool; Infant; Infant, Newborn; Philippines
Rights: © 2014 Paynter et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
RMID: 0030024646
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0090094
Appears in Collections:Public Health publications

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