Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2440/92939
Type: Conference paper
Title: Climate change and unfavorable rice environments: overview of approaches to assess trends and future projections
Author: Sumfleth, K.
Haefele, S.M.
Citation: Consortium for Unfavorable Rice Environments, proceedings of the mini-symposium on Responding to changing climate inunfavorable rice environments, 4 May 2010, Siem Reap, Cambodia, as published in Limited Proceedings, 2012 / Johnson, D.E., Haefele, S.M., Hardy, B. (ed./s), vol.17, pp.5-10
Publisher: International Rice Research Institute
Publisher Place: Philippines
Issue Date: 2012
ISSN: 1607-7776
Conference Name: Mini-Symposium of the Consortium for Unfavorable Rice Environments (4 May 2012 - 4 May 2012 : Siem Reap, Cambodia)
Editor: Johnson, D.E.
Haefele, S.M.
Hardy, B.
Statement of
Responsibility: 
Kay Sumfleth and Stephan M. Haefele
Abstract: The likely impacts of climate change on rice-based agroecosystems in Asia are uncertain, especially for rainfed rice systems in theunfavorable environments that are vulnerable to precipitation changes. Regional impacts of climate change are typically assessedquantitatively through spatially downscaling a global circulation model (GCM), but this approach is inherently biased through the GCMselected, which is typically not more than one. In this paper, we pursue a different approach that is based on an ensemble analysisof several GCMs. In the first section, the ensemble analysis is illustrated by using two rainfed rice environments (in eastern India andBangladesh) as examples. Although the different GCMs showed a similar overall trend of declining precipitation, major discrepancieshave occurred in seasonal aspects of climate change. The spatial downscaling of predicted changes in precipitation projected thatthe changes are varying throughout the months and regions, probably further increasing the severity and the areas already plaguedby floods and droughts. The second section of the paper assesses the potential and constraints of seasonal forecasting as a meansto alleviate losses in rice production. Drought is a major production constraint in rainfed rice, so that forecasts on drought occurrencecan be used to alleviate losses. In a broader sense, short-term and long-term climate projections could be a key for achieving rising productivity in unfavorable rice environments.
Rights: Copyright International Rice Research Institute
Appears in Collections:Agriculture, Food and Wine publications
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