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Type: Thesis
Title: Using Aggregated Demographic Data To Inform Electoral Boundary Redistributions: 2010 South Australian Election
Author: Casey Briggs
Issue Date: 2015
School/Discipline: School of Mathematical Sciences
Abstract: Electoral boundaries in South Australia are currently a contentious issue in politics, with allegations that the current boundaries are unfair. South Australia has fairness provisions that are unique in Australia governing the boundaries of electoral districts. However, in three of the last six state elections, the objective of fairness as characterised by these provisions has not been met. Boundaries are drawn by the independent Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission, and are revised after every general election in South Australia. The Commission's method uses estimates for the voting behaviours in small areas to inform the decisions about boundary changes. The objective of this thesis is to develop an alternative method for calculating these estimates, and test the credibility of the resultant estimates from our new method. We develop a series of gradually refined regression models that use demographic data in South Australia to predict voting behaviour. The demographic data is sourced from the periodical Census of Population and Housing. In this research we also test the proposition that income, education level, and the language people speak at home are significant factors in their voting behaviour, at an aggregated group level. We contend that the predictions calculated under the preferred model in this thesis are credible, and that the techniques used warrant further exploration.
Advisor: Bean, Nigel Geoffrey
Tuke, Simon Jonathan
Macintyre, Clement James
Dissertation Note: Thesis(M.Phil)-- University of Adelaide, School of Mathematical Sciences, 2015
Keywords: elections; South Australian politics; electoral boundaries; electoral mathematics; Australian politics; politics
Provenance: This electronic version is made publicly available by the University of Adelaide in accordance with its open access policy for student theses. Copyright in this thesis remains with the author. This thesis may incorporate third party material which has been used by the author pursuant to Fair Dealing exceptions. If you are the owner of any included third party copyright material you wish to be removed from this electronic version, please complete the take down form located at:
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