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Type: Journal article
Title: Environmental drivers of Ross River virus in southeastern Tasmania, Australia: towards strengthening public health interventions
Author: Werner, A.
Goater, S.
Carver, S.
Robertson, G.
Allen, G.
Weinstein, P.
Citation: Epidemiology and Infection, 2012; 140(2):359-371
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Issue Date: 2012
ISSN: 0950-2688
Statement of
A. K. Werner, S. Goater, S. Carver, G. Robertson, G. R. Allen, and P. Weinstein
Abstract: In Australia, Ross River virus (RRV) is predominantly identified and managed through passive health surveillance. Here, the proactive use of environmental datasets to improve community-scale public health interventions in southeastern Tasmania is explored. Known environmental drivers (temperature, rainfall, tide) of the RRV vector Aedes camptorhynchus are analysed against cumulative case records for five adjacent local government areas (LGAs) from 1993 to 2009. Allowing for a 0- to 3-month lag period, temperature was the most significant driver of RRV cases at 1-month lag, contributing to a 23·2% increase in cases above the long-term case average. The potential for RRV to become an emerging public health issue in Tasmania due to projected climate changes is discussed. Moreover, practical outputs from this research are proposed including the development of an early warning system for local councils to implement preventative measures, such as public outreach and mosquito spray programmes.
Keywords: Alphavirus; environmental drivers; predictive model; Ross River virus; Tasmania
Rights: © Cambridge University Press 2011
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268811000446
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