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Type: Journal article
Title: Contact tracing and antiviral prophylaxis in the early stages of a pandemic: the probability of a major outbreak
Author: Ross, J.
Black, A.
Citation: Mathematical Medicine and Biology, 2015; 32(3):331-343
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Issue Date: 2015
ISSN: 1477-8599
Statement of
Joshua V. Ross and Andrew J. Black
Abstract: Antiviral prophylaxis forms a significant component of health management plans for many countries around the world. A number of studies have shown that the delays typically encountered in distributing these antivirals to households, following the first infectious case, can result in their efficacy being severely reduced. Here, we investigate the use of contact tracing as a method to reduce the delays and hence mitigate the reduction in efficacy of antivirals. We assess the usefulness of contact tracing in terms of the probability of a major outbreak. It is found, with parameter distributions appropriate to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and distributions reflecting commonly experienced delays, that standard contact tracing renders an outbreak impossible approximately one in five times compared with approximately one in ten times in its absence. A contact-tracing efficiency of 50% would see further improvements with an outbreak being impossible approximately one in four times, and a reduction of the median probability of a major outbreak from 0.41 to below 0.27.
Keywords: Antivirals; households; influenza; probability of a major outbreak; stochastic model
Rights: © The authors 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.
RMID: 0030011512
DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqu014
Grant ID:
Appears in Collections:Mathematical Sciences publications

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