Building general resilience in preparation for unexpected risks: applying complex systems thinking to disaster risk reduction.

Abstract

This thesis investigates the application of Complex Systems Thinking (CST) to Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) strategies in order to build resilience in preparation for unexpected risks. The increasing uncertainty and hyper-connectivity in world networks means that the exposure to unexpected risks is rising. National and international DRR strategies have been shown to be insufficient to move countries, states, communities and individuals to prepare in a more responsible way. Complex Systems Thinking offers a holistic understanding of a disaster in time and space, while appreciating the uncertainty involved in risk management. However, its operationalisation is encountering numerous difficulties because of the reductionist model on which DRR strategies are formulated. This thesis argues that these efforts need to be complemented with systemic methods that may overcome the hierarchical structures in which current DRR strategies are conceived and implemented. This requires systems to develop the ability to be ambidextrous, that is, to keep current DRR structures in place while extending their range to include unexpected events for which no prescribed actions exist. The question arises, how should this be done? The portfolio of papers and commentary that comprises the substance of the thesis addresses these thematic questions in an integrated way. Taken together, they advance the core argument of the thesis, which is that CST offers an alternative approach to moving from a reductionist to an ambidextrous mindset; this will enable DRR practitioners to ‘think outside the box’ and to take better account of the complex systemic conditions in which disasters develop. Paper 1 shows how disasters are characterised by interacting systems that need to develop the capability to adapt and to be flexible beyond predefined frameworks and regulations in order to be better prepared to face uncertainty. Paper 2 highlights that disaster risk reduction operates at the interface between knowable and unknown risks and, for this reason, reductionist and systemic approaches to disaster risk reduction need to be integrated. In Paper 3, these concepts are juxtaposed with the concept of resilience in the Australian context and three scales of enquiry are presented: (1) members of the public from two South Australian councils, (2) the Australian Red Cross and (3) the South Australian Government organisations that are responsible for DRR. The concept of resilience is further explored in a conceptual framework in Paper 4, where the overall methodology adopted in this thesis is illustrated. Current DRR strategies are overbalanced towards mitigation of identified risks, but neglect to take into account that disasters are largely unexpected events. ‘What is preventing communities and institutions from developing a culture of safety and resilience?’ Paper 5 addresses this question on an international level and suggests that interdependencies between strategic priorities need to be taken into consideration, if international targets are to be met. Paper 6 provides an overview of the South Australian DRR context and an integrated cross-scale perspective of potential and systemic constraints that act as barriers to change. Finally, Paper 7 summarises the state of the art of DRR at the South Australian level and suggests possible ways forward. The final chapter includes key insights and recommendations, while introducing future research steps.