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|Title:||Implications for Indonesia of Asia’s rise in the global economy|
|Citation:||Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 2015; 51(1):69-94|
|Publisher:||Taylor and Francis|
|Kym Anderson, Anna Strutt|
|Abstract:||This article projects Indonesia’s production and trade patterns to 2020 and 2030 in the course of global economic development under various growth and policy scenarios. We support our projections of the global economy by employing the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and version 8.1 of the GTAP database, along with supplementary data from a range of sources. Our baseline projection assumes that trade-related policies do not change in each region, but that endowments and real GDP do change, at exogenously selected rates. We use this baseline and its assumptions to analyse how potential global changes may affect the Indonesian economy over this and the next decade. We then consider the potential impacts of three policy reforms by 2020: an increase in global rice exports, associated with the opening of Myanmar; the recently imposed export taxes in Indonesia on unprocessed primary products; and the implementation of Indonesia’s new food law.|
|Keywords:||Global economy-wide model projections; economic growth; structural change; food policy; export taxes|
|Rights:||© 2015 Indonesia Project ANU|
|Appears in Collections:||Economics publications|
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