Mismatch in reindeer resilience to past and future warming signals ongoing declines
Date
2025
Authors
Canteri, E.
Brown, S.C.
Post, E.
Schmidt, N.M.
Nogues-Bravo, D.
Fordham, D.A.
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Journal article
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Science Advances, 2025; 11(33):eadu0175-1-eadu0175-12
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Elisabetta Canteri, Stuart C. Brown, Eric Post, Niels Martin Schmidt, David Nogues-Bravo, Damien A. Fordham
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Abstract
Rangifer tarandus (caribou or reindeer) survived periods of abrupt climatic warming during the last deglaciation but are currently in global decline. Using process-explicit models of likely climate-human- Rangifer interactions and inferences of demographic change from radiocarbon-dated fossils and ancient DNA, we reconstruct and decipher 21,000 years of Rangifer population dynamics. These high-resolution population reconstructions pinpoint ecological characteristics and life-history traits that most likely enabled Rangifer to survive rapid warming events following the Last Glacial Maximum. Projecting these process-driven models into the future reveals that these attributes are unlikely to buffer Rangifer against wide-scale population declines from expected 21st Century climatic warming. Our findings highlight a need to boost investments in the management and conservation of Rangifer, particularly in North America, where projected losses are expected to exceed 80%. This will not only support the survival of the species and the vital services it renders in Arctic ecosystems, but also help sustain the socioeconomic, cultural, and emotional well-being of many Rangifer-dependent communities.
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Copyright © 2025 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.