Mismatch in reindeer resilience to past and future warming signals ongoing declines

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dc.contributor.authorCanteri, E.
dc.contributor.authorBrown, S.C.
dc.contributor.authorPost, E.
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, N.M.
dc.contributor.authorNogues-Bravo, D.
dc.contributor.authorFordham, D.A.
dc.date.issued2025
dc.description.abstractRangifer tarandus (caribou or reindeer) survived periods of abrupt climatic warming during the last deglaciation but are currently in global decline. Using process-explicit models of likely climate-human- Rangifer interactions and inferences of demographic change from radiocarbon-dated fossils and ancient DNA, we reconstruct and decipher 21,000 years of Rangifer population dynamics. These high-resolution population reconstructions pinpoint ecological characteristics and life-history traits that most likely enabled Rangifer to survive rapid warming events following the Last Glacial Maximum. Projecting these process-driven models into the future reveals that these attributes are unlikely to buffer Rangifer against wide-scale population declines from expected 21st Century climatic warming. Our findings highlight a need to boost investments in the management and conservation of Rangifer, particularly in North America, where projected losses are expected to exceed 80%. This will not only support the survival of the species and the vital services it renders in Arctic ecosystems, but also help sustain the socioeconomic, cultural, and emotional well-being of many Rangifer-dependent communities.
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityElisabetta Canteri, Stuart C. Brown, Eric Post, Niels Martin Schmidt, David Nogues-Bravo, Damien A. Fordham
dc.identifier.citationScience Advances, 2025; 11(33):eadu0175-1-eadu0175-12
dc.identifier.doi10.1126/sciadv.adu0175
dc.identifier.issn2375-2548
dc.identifier.issn2375-2548
dc.identifier.orcidCanteri, E. [0000-0001-9867-8247]
dc.identifier.orcidBrown, S.C. [0000-0002-0669-1418]
dc.identifier.orcidFordham, D.A. [0000-0003-2137-5592]
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2440/147974
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
dc.relation.granthttp://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP180102392
dc.relation.granthttp://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT140101192
dc.rightsCopyright © 2025 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.
dc.source.urihttps://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adu0175
dc.subjectreindeer resilience; warming signals
dc.subject.meshAnimals
dc.subject.meshReindeer
dc.subject.meshEcosystem
dc.subject.meshPopulation Dynamics
dc.subject.meshFossils
dc.subject.meshClimate Change
dc.subject.meshGlobal Warming
dc.titleMismatch in reindeer resilience to past and future warming signals ongoing declines
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.publication-statusPublished

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