Putting the art before the force
Date
2010
Authors
Pincombe, A.
Pincombe, B.
Pearce, C.
Editors
Advisors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Type:
Conference paper
Citation
ANZIAM Journal, 2010; 51:C482-C496
Statement of Responsibility
A. H. Pincombe, B. M. Pincombe and C. E. M. Pearce
Conference Name
Engineering Mathematics and Applications Conference (2009 : Adelaide, South Australia)
Abstract
We use a dataset from the Battle of Kursk to test three estimators of attrition: linear, quadratic and log dependence on the number of soldiers in each force. Data giving force numbers per day show significant collinearity, so we use force and loss ratios for our tests. We demonstrate that the strongest correlate in the dataset for a sides attrition is its own force strength. This supports the log estimator, and we evaluate the proposition that this counterintuitive connection is a product of the pre-battle art of war, where commanders attempt to balance their forces to their expectations of threat. Thus expected losses generate actual force numbers whereas we seek information on the ways that force numbers generate actual losses, and both processes are based on the same correlation information. We argue that the dataset must still contain information on the mechanisms of attrition, so we widen our search criteria and uncover some remarkable facts. © Austral. Mathematical Soc. 2010.
School/Discipline
Dissertation Note
Provenance
Description
Proceedings of EMAC 2009, held at the Unversity of Adelaide, 6-9th December 2009
Access Status
Rights
Copyright Australian Mathematical Society 2010