Bitcoin, gold, and the VIX: short- and long-term effects of economic policy uncertainty
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Date
2023
Authors
Hernandez, J.A.
Hasan, M.Z.
McIver, R.P.
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Journal article
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Applied Economics Letters, 2023; 30(6):761-765
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Abstract
We investigate short- and long-term effects of U.S. economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on bitcoin, gold, and the implied US stock market volatility (VIX). We apply an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to monthly data. Our results suggest EPU significantly negatively (positively) impacts bitcoin over short (long) horizons. In contrast to the extant literature we find the magnitude of the effect of EPU on bitcoin returns weakens over longer horizons. Our empirical results provide a cautionary note for holders of asset portfolios that include bitcoin in their mix as a hedge against uncertainty.
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Copyright 2022 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
Access Condition Notes: Accepted manuscript available after 1 July 2023