Structured analogies for forecasting
Date
2007
Authors
Green, K.C.
Armstrong, J.S.
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Journal Title
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Type:
Journal article
Citation
International Journal of Forecasting, 2007; 23(3):365-376
Statement of Responsibility
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Abstract
People often use analogies when forecasting, but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure whereby experts list analogies, rate their similarity to the target, and match outcomes with possible target outcomes. An administrator would then derive a forecast from the information. When predicting decisions made in eight conflict situations, unaided experts' forecasts were little better than chance, at 32% accurate. In contrast, 46% of structured-analogies forecasts were accurate. Among experts who were able to think of two or more analogies and who had direct experience with their closest analogy, 60% of forecasts were accurate. Collaboration did not help.
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Dissertation Note
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Description
Link to a related website: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2004/wp17-04.pdf, Open Access via Unpaywall
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Copyright 2007 International Institute of Forecasters