我国多地区热浪相关伤害住院负担及经济费用预估 = Projection of heatwave-attributable injury hospitalization burden and healthcare costs in various regions of China
Date
2025
Authors
Fan, X.
Yonghong, L.
Liu, J.
Yu, W.
Cheng, Z.
Zhang, L.
Liang, J.
Yang, W.
Yang, J.
Yao, X.
Editors
Advisors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Type:
Journal article
Citation
Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2025; 15(6):476-485
Statement of Responsibility
夏凡, 李永红, 刘靖雯, 王裕, 赵程, 张琳歆, 梁娟, 杨文静, 杨军, 姚孝元 = XIA Fan, LI Yong-hong, LIU Jing-wen, WANG Yu, ZHAO Cheng, ZHANG Lin-xin, LIANG Juan, YANG Wen-jing, YANG Jun, YAO Xiao-yuan
Conference Name
Abstract
摘要:目的 预估我国多个地区在三种排放情景下,未来2030s、2060s 及2090s 的热浪相关伤害住院数及相关花费。方法 以大于等于日平均温度的第90 百分位数,持续3 d 作为热浪定义,基于各样本地区2014—2019 年期间该定义下热浪与伤害住 院风险之间的暴露反应关系以及相关住院费用数据,结合CMIP6 提供的23 种大气环流模型及三种排放情景形成的未来温度 数据集,计算未来低、中、高排放情景下的归因负担。结果 未来低排放情景下归因负担将在2060s 达峰后转降,高排放情景 下风险持续增长,归因住院数可较基线增长351%;归因花费在不同情景下将增加1. 48 至4. 25 亿元人民币不等。各人群及地 区亚组风险水平随时间变化;城市、亚热带季风地区、女性人群、15~ 64 岁人群负担始终较高,≥65 岁人群、乡村地区、高原山 地气候带区域风险增幅较大。结论 气候变化背景下,未来高排放情景负担巨大,低排放情景可有效抑制负担上升趋势。 = Objective To project the number of heatwave-attributable injury hospitalizations and related costs for various sample districts/counties in China under three emission scenarios in the 2030s, 2060s and 2090s.Methods A heatwave was defined as daily average temperature greater than or equal to the 90th percentile lasting for at least three consecutive days. Based on the exposure-response relationship between heatwaves and injury hospitalization risks and related hospitalization costs in each sample area during 2014 to 2019, and using the future temperature datasets provided by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 with 23 global climate models and three emission scenarios, the attributable burden under low, medium, and high emission scenarios in the future was calculated.Results Under the low emission scenario, the attributable burden is expected to peak in the 2060s and then decline, while under the high emission scenario, the risk continues to grow, with the number of attributable hospitalizations potentially increasing by 351% compared with the baseline; and related costs are projected to increase by 148 to 425 million yuan under different scenarios. The risk changes over time across various populations and regions. The burden is consistently higher for urban areas, the subtropical monsoon region, females, and the population aged 15-64 years; and the risk increase is greater for the population aged 65 years and above, rural areas, and the plateau and mountain climate zone.Conclusion Heatwaves would increase the risk of injury hospitalizations. Under the context of climate change, the burden would be substantial under the high emission scenario, while the low emission scenario can effectively curb the upward trend. It is necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and implement targeted health interventions for vulnerable regions and populations to avoid a heavy burden in the future.
School/Discipline
Dissertation Note
Provenance
Description
Title, Authors, Abstract and Keyword in Chinese and English only. Article is is Chinese.
Access Status
Rights
© 2025 Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention