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oai:digital.library.adelaide.edu.au:2440/1142452026-06-12T08:33:23Zcom_2440_14759col_2440_14760

Metcalfe, Andrew Viggo Green, David Anthony Mansor, Mohd Mahayaudin bin School of Mathematical Sciences 2017 http://hdl.handle.net/2440/114245 A suite of seven statistics to detect directionality in time series is presented. Applications from various disciplines including business, environmental science, finance and medicine are considered. Models that allow for directionality are proposed, and methods of fitting these models are investigated. Time series models that incorporate directionality provide more precise prediction limits and more realistic simulations than the models that do not. Potential practical applications include: providing evidence to support physical interpretations; directionality trading rules for investment portfolio; prediction of unstable financial periods; and possible early warning of epileptic seizures. Thesis (Ph.D.) (Research by Publication) -- University of Adelaide, School of Mathematical Sciences, 2018 Research by publication time series directionality reversibility threshold autoregressive penalized least squares prediction forecasting Directionality in time series and its applications Theses This electronic version is made publicly available by the University of Adelaide in accordance with its open access policy for student theses. Copyright in this thesis remains with the author. This thesis may incorporate third party material which has been used by the author pursuant to Fair Dealing exceptions. If you are the owner of any included third party copyright material you wish to be removed from this electronic version, please complete the take down form located at: http://www.adelaide.edu.au/legalsopen.access