Tomlinson, S.Lomolino, M.V.Anderson, A.Austin, J.J.Brown, S.C.Haythorne, S.Perry, G.L.W.Wilmshurst, J.M.Wood, J.R.Fordham, D.A.2024-03-132024-03-132024Scientific Reports, 2024; 14(1):5261-1-5261-132045-23222045-2322https://hdl.handle.net/2440/140436Published online: 04 March 2024Drivers and dynamics of initial human migrations across individual islands and archipelagos are poorly understood, hampering assessments of subsequent modification of island biodiversity. We developed and tested a new statistical-simulation approach for reconstructing the pattern and pace of human migration across islands at high spatiotemporal resolutions. Using Polynesian colonisation of New Zealand as an example, we show that process-explicit models, informed by archaeological records and spatiotemporal reconstructions of past climates and environments, can provide new and important insights into the patterns and mechanisms of arrival and establishment of people on islands. We find that colonisation of New Zealand required there to have been a single founding population of approximately 500 people, arriving between 1233 and 1257 AD, settling multiple areas, and expanding rapidly over both North and South Islands. These verified spatiotemporal reconstructions of colonisation dynamics provide new opportunities to explore more extensively the potential ecological impacts of human colonisation on New Zealand’s native biota and ecosystems.en© The Author(s) 2024. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.Island biodiversity loss; Human biogeography; Human migration; Process-based model; Pacific; Spatially explicit population modelJournal article10.1038/s41598-024-55180-92024-03-06686849Tomlinson, S. [0000-0003-0864-5391]Austin, J.J. [0000-0003-4244-2942]Brown, S.C. [0000-0002-0669-1418]Wood, J.R. [0000-0001-8008-6083]Fordham, D.A. [0000-0003-2137-5592]