Bell, J.Ganachaud, A.Gehrke, P.Griffiths, S.Hobday, A.Hoegh-Guldberg, O.Johnson, J.Le Borgne, R.Lehodey, P.Lough, J.Matear, R.Pickering, T.Pratchett, M.Sen Gupta, A.Senina, I.Waycott, M.2013-06-172013-06-172013Nature Climate Change, 2013; 3(6):591-5991758-678X1758-6798http://hdl.handle.net/2440/78332Pacific Island countries have an extraordinary dependence on fisheries and aquaculture. Maintaining the benefits from the sector is a difficult task, now made more complex by climate change. Here we report how changes to the atmosphere-ocean are likely to affect the food webs, habitats and stocks underpinning fisheries and aquaculture across the region. We found winners and losers - tuna are expected to be more abundant in the east and freshwater aquaculture and fisheries are likely to be more productive. Conversely, coral reef fisheries could decrease by 20% by 2050 and coastal aquaculture may be less efficient. We demonstrate how the economic and social implications can be addressed within the sector - tuna and freshwater aquaculture can help support growing populations as coral reefs, coastal fisheries and mariculture decline. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.en© 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.Journal article002012865410.1038/nclimate18380003211664000212-s2.0-8487852446519353Waycott, M. [0000-0002-0822-0564]