Yuan, P.Xiang, J.Borg, M.Chen, T.Lin, X.Peng, X.Zheng, K.2025-07-092025-07-092020BMC Public Health, 2020; 20(1):1090-1-1090-71471-24581471-2458https://hdl.handle.net/2440/145791Background: Cumulative mortality rate and cumulative mortality risk are two commonly used indicators to measure the impact and severity of diseases. However, they are calculated during a defined life span and assume the subject does not die from other causes. This study aims to use a new indicator, lifetime death probability (LDP), to estimate the lifetime death probabilities for the top five leading causes of death in China and explore the regional differences and trends over time. Methods: LDPs were calculated using a probability additive formula and abridged life tables. Results: In 2014, LDPs for heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, malignancy, respiratory disease, and injury and poisoning were 24.4, 23.7, 19.2, 15.5, and 5.3%, respectively. The LDPs for heart disease and malignancy increased by 7.3 and 0.5%, respectively, compared to those from 2004 to 2005. In contrast, the LDPs for cerebrovascular and respiratory disease decreased by 1.0 and 3.9%, respectively, compared to those in 2004–2005. Across the eastern, central and western regions, malignancy had the highest LDP in the eastern region, cerebrovascular and heart diseases in the central region, and respiratory diseases, and injury and poisoning in the western region. Conclusions: LDP is an effective indicator for comparing health outcomes and can be applied for future disease surveillance. Heart disease and malignancy were the two most common causes of death in China, but with regional differences. There is a need to implement targeted measures to prevent chronic diseases in different regions.en© The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.Lifetime death probability; Chronic diseases; Cause of death; MortalityHumansNeoplasmsRespiratory Tract DiseasesCerebrovascular DisordersChronic DiseaseLife TablesCause of DeathProbabilityQuality-Adjusted Life YearsMiddle AgedChinaFemaleMaleYoung AdultJournal article10.1186/s12889-020-09201-72024-02-13538341Xiang, J. [0000-0002-6862-2696]Borg, M. [0000-0003-4741-553X]