Zeng, Z.Gao, M.Ng, C.T.Sheikh, A.H.2023-11-142023-11-142023Thin Walled Structures, 2023; 192:111138-1-111138-140263-82311879-3223https://hdl.handle.net/2440/139893Available online 29 August 2023This paper proposed a probabilistic framework of damage characterisation to detect and identify early-state cracks in pipe-like structures using ultrasonic guided waves. The crack location, crack sizes (e.g., depth and width of the crack), and Young’s modulus are considered as unknown parameters in the model updating using a Bayesian approach, by which their values and the associated uncertainties are quantified. The proposed framework is developed based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) by subset simulation, which is a likelihood-free Bayesian approach. This algorithm estimates the posterior distributions of unknown parameters by directly accessing the similarity between the measured signals from experiments and the simulated guided wave (GW) signals from the numerical model. In this case, the evaluation of likelihood functions can be smartly circumvented during Bayesian inference. A time-domain spectral finite element (SFE) method with a cracked finite element model is employed to model the pipes to enhance the computational efficiency of the simulation and model updating. Numerical and experimental case studies are carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed likelihood-free approach. Numerical results show the accuracy and robustness of the proposed approach in identifying unknown parameters under different scenarios. The associated uncertainties of each parameter are also quantified by analysing the statistical properties of the sample set, such as mean and coefficient of variation (COV) values. Experimental results show that the proposed method can accurately identify the unknown parameters, which further verifies the accuracy and practicability of the probabilistic damage characterisation framework.en© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Damage identification; Pipe; Bayesian approach; Approximate Bayesian computation; Spectral finite element; Guided waves; Torsional waveJournal article10.1016/j.tws.2023.1111382023-11-14654806Zeng, Z. [0000-0002-5797-8080]Gao, M. [0000-0003-0355-8651]Sheikh, A.H. [0000-0002-2839-1707]