Rigosi, A.2012-12-132012-12-132012Proceedings of the 7th Early Career Researchers' National Forum & Workshop: Australian climate change adaptation research network for settlements and infrastructure, held in Melbourne, 7-9 May, 2012: pp. 1http://hdl.handle.net/2440/74629Modification of lake heat budget due to global warming has consequences for water quality, biogeochemistry and lake habitat. A major concern is that an intensification of heating will increase thermal stratification within lakes favouring the development of the buoyant bloom-forming cyanobacteria. The toxicity of cyanobacteria represents a risk that has to be assessed and managed at different latitudes and with different land use. The aim of the research, currently in progress, is to determine how cyanobacterial risk may change with climate change. Different lakes may have different sensitivity to cyanobacteria and climate change, which may be a function of latitude, nutrient loading and lake size. Further objectives are to determine the factors leading to cyanobacterial blooms, determine if these factors are common across all lake types and latitudes, and to predict how cyanobacteria risk may change. The objectives will be achieved adopting a multiple approach: (1) applying a statistical Bayesian model to a data set that includes lakes and reservoirs with different ecological states and located at different latitudes and (2) using a predictive coupled climate-hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model to assess cyanobacteria risk under different scenarios. The simulations will enable a risk profile of lakes around the globe to identify the lake types that are most sensitive to cyanobacterial blooms at present and in the face of climate change.enCopyright status unknownConference item00300007572012121213494964763