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Type: Book chapter
Title: Parameter estimation and predictive uncertainty quantification in hydrological modelling
Author: Kavetski, D.
Citation: Handbook of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting, 2018 / Duan, Q., Pappenberger, F., Wood, A., Cloke, H.L., Schaake, J.C. (ed./s), Ch.32, pp.481-522
Publisher: Springer
Publisher Place: Berlin, Heidelberg
Issue Date: 2018
ISBN: 9783642404573
Editor: Duan, Q.
Pappenberger, F.
Wood, A.
Cloke, H.L.
Schaake, J.C.
Statement of
Dmitri Kavetski
Abstract: The majority of hydrological and environmental models contain parameters that must be specified before the model can be used. Parameter estimation is hence a very common problem in environmental sciences and has received tremendous amount of research and industry attention. This chapter reviews some of the key principles of parameter estimation, with a focus on calibration approaches and uncertainty quantification. The distinct approaches of manual calibration, optimization, multi-objective optimization, and probabilistic approaches are described in terms of key theory and representative applications. Advantages and limitations of these strategies are listed and discussed, with a focus on their ability to represent parametric and predictive uncertainties. The role of posterior diagnostics to check calibration and model assumptions that impact on parameter estimation is emphasized. Auxiliary tricks and techniques are described to sim- plify the process of parameter estimation in practical applications. The chapter concludes with an outline of directions for ongoing and future research. It is hoped that this chapter will help hydrologists and environmental modellers get to the current state of research and practice in model calibration, parameter estima- tion, and uncertainty quantification.
Rights: © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-39925-1_25
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Appears in Collections:Aurora harvest 8
Civil and Environmental Engineering publications

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