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Type: Journal article
Title: Prevalence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in mainland China: Analysis of National Surveillance Data, 2004-2009
Author: Liu, X.
Jiang, B.
Bi, P.
Yang, W.
Liu, Q.
Citation: Epidemiology and Infection, 2012; 140(5):851-857
Publisher: Cambridge Univ Press
Issue Date: 2012
ISSN: 0950-2688
Statement of
X. Liu, B. Jiang, P. Bi, W. Yang and Q. Liu
Abstract: The monthly and annual incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China for 2004–2009 was analysed in conjunction with associated geographical and demographic data. We applied the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to fit and forecast monthly HFRS incidence in China. HFRS was endemic in most regions of China except Hainan Province. There was a high risk of infection for male farmers aged 30–50 years. The fitted SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model had a root-mean-square-error criterion of 0·0133 that indicated accurate forecasts were possible. These findings have practical applications for more effective HFRS control and prevention. The conducted SARIMA model may have applications as a decision support tool in HFRS control and risk-management planning programmes.
Keywords: Epidemics; geographical information systems; infectious disease epidemiology; haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome
Rights: Copyright status unknown
RMID: 0020118179
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268811001063
Appears in Collections:Public Health publications
Environment Institute publications

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