A theoretical framework for analysing climate impact

Abstract

Over the past decade human understanding of the potential variety and range of climate change impacts has expanded. Not only is the science of climate change better, though not completely, understood, but the regional variation in physical impacts such as sea level rise, extreme weather events, soil salinization and cyclones have become the subject of investigation. The impact on human settlements has been startling, demonstrated by events such as Hurricane Katrina and Cyclone SDR and AILA in Bangladesh. But the results of such climate change induced events are not confined to the immediate or primary effects; they ripple through societies, leading to significant outcomes in terms of human suffering, financial cost and downstream economic and environmental consequences. Hundreds of millions of people, mostly from low-lying coastal zones, face forced displacement and will need to migrate in search of alternative livelihoods. In most cases the destinations of such displaced populations are the nearest urban area. On arrival refuges face emotional, social and economic stress as they seek to adjust to changed circumstances. At the same time, receiving urban areas must adapt to an influx of people and the physical and economic demands placed on the existing system. As the physical climate science has developed and policy responses have become broadly classified as either adaptation or mitigation, the network of cause and effect which results from primary impacts has been less intensively studied. Bangladesh represents a region where a complex set of climate driven outcomes is already evident as land is inundated and populations migrate in large numbers. Using the region as an example this study seeks to develop a classification of climate related impacts which extends from the primary climate events, through secondary population displacement and migration. Tertiary social and economic effects and fourth level policy responses by urban authorities, which seek to cope with the escalating scale of the problem, are examined and the interconnections between climate change, migration and urban policy are explored.