Population ageing and low fertility: recent demographic changes in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Abstract

Population ageing is the most prominent demographic trend in Europe. It is driven in part by the widespread transition from high fertility to low fertility, which is most pronounced in the former socialist countries of Eastern Europe. One of these, Bosnia and Herzegovina, is experiencing a sharp decline in the proportion of younger people and an increase of the elderly as the total fertility rate is falling more rapidly than are mortality rates. This ageing, with a marked decline in fertility, has been accompanied by emigration of the working-age population and reproductive-age adults plus ongoing problems in the aftermath of the civil war that ended in 1995. The analysis presented here uses statistical data from Bosnia’s last two population censuses, taken prior to the war, and more recent estimates from official sources. Additional material has been sourced via fieldwork that has included interviews with key informants. Recent demographic trends not only reflect contemporary socio-economic adjustments, but also past demographic characteristics, the war in the early 1990s and other major events associated with post-war political and economic instability.