Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2440/100164
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Type: Journal article
Title: Predictive value of serum testosterone for type 2 diabetes risk assessment in men
Author: Atlantis, E.
Fahey, P.
Martin, S.
O'Loughlin, P.
Taylor, A.W.
Adams, R.J.
Shi, Z.
Wittert, G.
Citation: BMC Endocrine Disorders, 2016; 16(1):26-1-26-10
Publisher: BioMed Central
Issue Date: 2016
ISSN: 1472-6823
1472-6823
Statement of
Responsibility: 
Evan Atlantis, Paul Fahey, Sean Martin, Peter O’Loughlin, Anne W. Taylor, Robert J. Adams, Zumin Shi, and Gary Wittert
Abstract: Background: Effective prevention of type 2 diabetes (T2D) requires early identification of high-risk individuals who might benefit from intervention. We sought to determine whether low serum testosterone, a novel risk factor for T2D in men, adds clinically meaningful information beyond current T2D risk models. Methods: The Men Androgen Inflammation Lifestyle Environment and Stress (MAILES) study population consists of 2563 community-dwelling men aged 35-80 years in Adelaide, Australia. Of the MAILES participants, 2038 (80.0 %) provided information at baseline (2002-2006) and follow-up (2007-2010). After excluding participants with diabetes (n = 317), underweight (n = 5), and unknown BMI status (n = 11) at baseline; and unknown diabetes status (n = 50) at follow-up; 1655 participants were followed for 5 years. T2D at baseline and follow-up was defined by self-reported diabetes, or fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7.0 mmol/L (126.1 mg/dL), or glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥6.5 %, or diabetes medications. Risk models were tested using logistic regression models. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPV) were used to identify the optimal cut-off point for low serum testosterone for incident T2D and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AROC) curve was used to summarise the predictive power of the model. 15.5 % of men had at least one missing predictor variable; addressed through multiple imputation. Results: The incidence rate of T2D was 8.9 % (147/1655) over a median follow-up of 4.95 years (interquartile range: 4.35-5.00). Serum testosterone level predicted incident T2D (relative risk 0.96 [95 % CI: 0.92,1.00], P = 0.032) independent of current risk models including the AUSDRISK, but did not improve corresponding AROC statistics. A cut-off point of <16 nmol/L for low serum testosterone, which classified about 43 % of men, returned equal sensitivity (61.3 % [95 % CI: 52.6,69.4]) and specificity (58.3 % [95 % CI: 55.6,60.9) for predicting T2D risk, with a PPV of 12.9 % (95 % CI: 10.4,15.8). Conclusions: Low serum testosterone predicts an increased risk of developing T2D in men over 5 years independent of current T2D risk models applicable for use in routine clinical practice. Screening for low serum testosterone in addition to risk factors from current T2D risk assessment models or tools, including the AUSDRISK, would identify a large subgroup of distinct men who might benefit from targeted preventive interventions.
Keywords: Testosterone; diabetes; incidence; screening; prognosis; ROC; cohort
Rights: © 2016 The Author(s). Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
RMID: 0030048744
DOI: 10.1186/s12902-016-0109-7
Grant ID: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/627227
Appears in Collections:Medicine publications

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