Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://hdl.handle.net/2440/123709
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DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Cope, R.C. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Ross, J.V. | - |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2020; 486:1-7 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 0022-5193 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1095-8541 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2440/123709 | - |
dc.description.abstract | In an outbreak of an emerging disease the epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen may be largely unknown. A key determinant of ability to control the outbreak is the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset. We provide a method for identifying this relationship with high accuracy based on data from simulated household-stratified symptom-onset data. Further, this can be achieved with observations taken on only a few specific days, chosen optimally, within each household. The information provided by this method may inform decision making processes for outbreak response. An accurate and computationally-efficient heuristic for determining the optimal surveillance scheme is introduced. This heuristic provides a novel approach to optimal design for Bayesian model discrimination. | - |
dc.description.statementofresponsibility | Robert C.Cope, Joshua V.Ross | - |
dc.language.iso | en | - |
dc.publisher | Elsevier | - |
dc.rights | © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. | - |
dc.source.uri | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110079 | - |
dc.subject | Bayesian model discrimination | - |
dc.subject | epidemiology | - |
dc.subject | optimal experimental design | - |
dc.subject | random forests | - |
dc.title | Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control | - |
dc.type | Journal article | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110079 | - |
dc.relation.grant | http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT130100254 | - |
pubs.publication-status | Published | - |
dc.identifier.orcid | Cope, R.C. [0000-0002-2048-858X] | - |
dc.identifier.orcid | Ross, J.V. [0000-0002-9918-8167] | - |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest 4 Medicine publications |
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