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Type: Conference paper
Title: Modeling BGP table fluctuations
Author: Flavel, A.
Roughan, M.
Bean, N.
Maennel, O.
Citation: Managing traffic performance in converged networks: 20th International Teletraffic Congress, ITC20 2007, Ottawa, Canada, June 17-21, 2007: proceedings / Lorne Mason, Tadeusz Drwiega, James Yan (eds.):pp.141-153
Part of: Lecture Notes in Computer Science : 0302-9743
Publisher: Springer
Publisher Place: Berlin
Issue Date: 2007
Series/Report no.: Lecture Notes in Computer Science
ISBN: 3540729895
ISSN: 0302-9743
Conference Name: International Teletraffic Congress (20th : 2007 : Ottawa, Ont.)
Editor: Mason, L.
Drwiega, T.
Yan, J.
Statement of
Ashley Flavel, Matthew Roughan, Nigel Bean and Olaf Maennel
Abstract: In this paper we develop a mathematical model to capture BGP table fluctuations. This provides the necessary foundations to study short- and long-term routing table growth. We reason that this growth is operationally critical for network administrators who need to gauge the amount of memory to install in routers as well as being a potential deciding factor in determining when the Internet community will run out of IPv4 address space. We demonstrate that a simple model using a simple arrival process with heavy tailed service times is sufficient to reproduce BGP dynamics including the “spiky” characteristics of the original trace data. We derive our model using a classification technique that separates newly added or removed prefixes, short-term spikes and long-term stable prefixes. We develop a model of non-stable prefixes and show it has similar properties in their magnitude and duration to those observed in recorded BGP traces.
Rights: The original publication can be found at
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-72990-7
Appears in Collections:Aurora harvest 6
Environment Institute publications
Mathematical Sciences publications

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